U.S. Water News Online
MIAMI -- The dissipation of the El Nino warm water phenomenon in the Pacific will contribute to an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with eight hurricanes, a noted storm forecaster said.
Colorado State University expert William Gray said the season, which began officially on June 1, will produce a total of 14 tropical storms, of which three will be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph (179 kph) or more.
The prediction would double the number of hurricanes compared with last year, a season that produced 12 "named" storms but just four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Gray's forecast paralleled that of the National Hurricane Center, which on May 19 projected 11 to 15 tropical storms, six to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes this year.
Hurricane forecasting is tricky. Last September, Gray issued a mid-season forecast in which he lowered his forecast to eight storms for the entire season -- right before a dramatic rise in storm formation that took the season total to 12.
"The dissipation of El Nino and the anticipated formation of a La Nina in the Pacific are factors leading to the increase in our May update," Gray said in a written statement.
El Nino is the periodic warming of Pacific water around the equator. It brings strong winds in the upper atmosphere that shear off the tops of nascent cyclones in the Atlantic, dampening development.
El Nino played a role in suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic last year. Gray's forecasting team said it expects La Nina cold-water conditions to occur in the Pacific by mid-August, the beginning of the most active part of the hurricane season.
The circular tropical weather systems that develop into hurricanes become "tropical storms" and are given names when maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph (63 kph). When top winds hit 74 mph (119 kph), the storms become hurricanes.
The season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. But this year it got off to an early start with the April formation of Ana, which disappeared harmlessly in the north Atlantic.
On average, the Atlantic season sees 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
The United States has a higher-than-average probability -- 69 percent -- of being hit by a major hurricane this year, Gray said.
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